Recent arrivals data show continued momentum in overseas tourism demand, which, if sustained will result in stronger than expected growth in 2014.
According to the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA), tourist arrivals in the first seven months of this year totalled 861,324, which is a 24.7 percent increase over the 690,589 visitors received during the corresponding period in 2013.
The 24.7 percent Year-on-Year-to date increase in 2014 over 2013 has been ecstatically described by some as, “Tourists arrivals up and above target”, “Growing in leaps and bounds”, “Booming with huge increase in arrivals” and so on. I too, find myself unable to curb my enthusiasm over these figures. However, I do have some misgivings – nay, let me hastily correct that to mean a few questions – because we live in times where ‘dissension’ is considered ‘hearsay’.
In my article titled ‘The need for reliable tourism-related statistics’ published in the Mirror Business of 24th June 2014, I mentioned that ‘The transition from capturing data manually to one that now does it electronically ensured that the average 21 percent margin of miscalculation during 2013, was wiped out – resulting in the number of arrivals to the country last year, climbing from a flawed count of 1,005,605 to 1,274,593’. Statistically, a 26.7 percent increase of arrivals in 2013 over 2012 was one of the outcomes of this exercise.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but was this not a case of comparing ‘apples to oranges’? Briefly explained, the 2012 figure of a million + arrivals was based upon the previous method of calculating the cards manually. I.e. an unadjusted total that likely carried the similar plethora of counting errors, right up until November 2014, before the adjustment arising from the migration to the current computer data collection method- added another near 125,000 arrivals, arguably lost in count during 2013. We therefore have the adjusted 2013 arrivals figure of 1,274,593, recorded as a 26.7 percebt increase over that of 2012’s unadjusted 1,005,605 arrivals figure! Let us for a moment consider adjusting the arrivals figure for 2012. Let us also assume that the errors in the manual count and the missing bags of arrivals’ cards in 2012, were 50 percent less than what occurred during 2013. Accordingly, the adjusted arrival figure for 2012 would be 1,139,350. (Refer figure A) and the year-on-year increase for 2013 over 2012 is then down to 11.9 percent and not 26.7 percent.
In this context, the year-to-date 2014 arrivals increase of 24.7 percent over last year’s corresponding figure (both been adjusted to the new method for accuracy), has simply not been appreciated enough! Mark you, at this point in time, the rate of growth momentum this year is twice that of last year, and, all it now requires, is a mere 10 percent increase over 2013’s August to December period total, to reach the 1.5 million arrivals target for 2014. The stage however, is set to reach or go beyond a total 1.6 million arrivals by year end. Indeed an accomplishment that would take some beating.
Sri Lanka Travel Feneteko